Had Putin not taken Crimea, he would have lost both Crimea and Ukraine. You also cannot lose something you don’t have…

I keep hearing this phrase a lot in variations: “By taking Crimea, Putin made enemies of the Ukrainian people, and lost Ukraine forever.”

This is a very poor analysis of events. The pro-Russian position in Ukraine lost when the Euromaidan has won. The Maidan was a violent coup which was conducted by anti-Russian forces and in favour of a pro-Western orientation. Had Russia not made the decision to take Crimea, Ukraine would now be pro-Western and Russian military presence in Crimea would be unwelcome. Hence, for Russia, this was a question of capitulation and expulsion from Crimea, and this was totally unacceptable.

I also do not buy into the claim that Russian actions spurned the conflict. Had Russia not acted, the repressions against anti-Maidan would have come regardless. The Maidan regime would need to consolidate and assert its authority. It would have just been a further humiliation for Russia. Russia’s inaction is still blamed by many for the general loss incurred by the Antimaidan in 2014.

The idea that Putin lost Ukraine presupposes that Russia had some form of firm control over that country. But I remember Yanukovych pursuing relations with the EU, and repressing pro-Russian activists such as the Odessa politician, Igor Markov. Russia barely had influence over the Party of Regions, let alone the media and the oligarchs in Ukraine. We can, of course, argue that Russia should have done more in way of exerting influence over Ukraine before 2014 but that would just throw us into meaningless and frustrating speculation. The fact stands that Ukraine was an independent country since 1991, and her independent evolution culminated in the events of 2014.

Today, Russia has Crimea and Ukraine has bezviz, tomos, and hate. Russia does not need this kind of Ukraine.

From Deutsche Welle Russian…

Russia will not hold out in its self imposed embargo on import of agricultural products from EU countries. “Russia covers no more than 60% of her needs in agricultural products with domestic production. The country is unable to cover the deficit in dairy products alone.”

Hat tip

The Americans seem to have found themselves a candidate…

Two candidate for president, Dmytro Hnat and Andriy Sadovy have said they will withdraw from the presidential race in favour of Anatoly Hrytsenko.

Hrytsenko is the new State Department candidate. So if the Ukrainians go for this twerp, we will see more of this:

I published this on Facebook…

A Soros funded journalist, Bihus, published an investigation of corruption in the military conducted by Poroshenko’s friends.

The rats are literally jumping the ship. Nayem, Leshchenko, Zalishchuk, three journalists, who sit on US grants have left Poroshenko’s party, and the Atlantic Council is saying Poroshenko does not deserve a second term.

From RG.ru…

The candidate for the President of Ukraine and the leader of the party “Bat’kivschyna”, Yulia Tymoshenko said that for the last five years, Kiev has made regular purchases of gas from Russia through a scheme called “Mars”.

According to Tymoshenko, she is ready to provide documentary evidence that Ukraine bought gas of Russian provenance for all those five years.

This fact is being obscured from the public by the president and the prime minister, who “present Russian gas as European.”

As the former Ukrainian prime minster admitted, for this purpose, special looped pipelines were set up, and gas transported from Russia is being taken, according to documents, “through Mars” and European exchanges in order to “cover tracks.”

As you probably may have heard, a friend of the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and a member of Ukraine’s National Security Council, Oleh Hladkovskyi is involved in a corruption scandal…

As BIHUS.info alleges, Hladkovskiy (aka Svinarchuk), his son Ihor, and the latter’s friends have been running a scheme that exploited Ukrainian Army’s glut for spare parts following the 2014 conflict in Donbass and breakdown of relations with Russia.

Ihor Hladkovskiy’s gang have been smuggling spare parts for tanks and armoured personal carriers from Russia, and sold these to Ukrainian state defence industry company Ukroboronprom at an increased price. They also allegedly sold goods stolen from the Ukrainian military to Ukroboronprom. All this was covered by Hladkovskyi elder.

I watched BIHUS film two days ago, yesterday Tymoshenko initiated impeachment against Poroshenko in the parliament, but I doubt something will happen because I doubt she can gather enough votes.

BIHUS have other two films prepared. So hopefully it will at least knock down Poroshenko’s ratings.

***

Realated to corruption in the military might be the frequent explosions of amunition arsenals.

This may sound a bit weird but this is exactly what Denis Kazansky suggests in his tweet, in response to Vladimir Kornilov:

Translation:

Denis Kazansky: “What exceptional people, of course. On one hand, Lenin was destroying Krivdonbass (what a word!) (note: it is a combination of Krivoy Rog-Donbass), and on the other they came out to defend his monuments.

Meanwhile, the leaders of DKR were all executed not by some Banderovites but by Great Stalin.”

Vladimir Kornilov: “Today is a tragic anniversary for Donbass. 100 years ago, the Council for Defence led by Lenin decided to hand the Donetsk republic to Ukraine. I quote: “Ask Comrade Stalin through the Office of the Central Committee to conduct the liquidation of the Krivdonbass”. The Donbass is reaping the fruits of this mistake to this day.

For reference: Kazansky is a pro-Ukrainian, and pro-Western writer from Donetsk, Kornilov is a pro-Russian writer from Donetsk.

Those that have been reading my old blog, Austere Insomniac, may know that I am no fan of Lenin. I haven’t changed my opinions since, and still believe that the Lenin Mausoleum ought to be moved to Gorki Leninskie in Podmoskvie, and a Church of the New Martyrs ought to be built in its stead.

That said, the regular inhabitant of Donetsk may not be a fan of gangs of Banderovites toppling monuments in his city.

But really, he might not want to live in a country where streets are named after Stepan Bandera? Something I have never seen Kazansky condemn.

He might not want to live in a country, where the Russian language is being discriminated against? Something I have never seen the Russian speaking Kazansky condemn.

He might not want to live in a country, where the president breaks with the constitution to create an anti-Russian Church? Something I have never seen Kazansky condemn.

The Vice-Premier of Ukraine, Pavlo Rozenko, published some curious information on his Facebook page…

Translation:

Pleasant news for Ukrainian pensioners!

The first. The Government will carry out the planed indexation of pension benefits in accordance with the Law of Ukraine On Compulsory Pension Insurance. Such indexation will be carried out for more than 10.2 million pensioners. The indexation is carried out in accordance with the inflationary processes of 2018, and the growth of wages in Ukraine.

The second. Within the framework of the said indexation on March 1, out of the initiative of the President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko also introduces additional pension payments to pensioners. The payment will be made to those who have a long insurance record of more than 35 years men / 30 years women (for those who went into retirement after 2011) and and 25/20 years (for those who went into retirement before 2011) but will not receive indexed payments due to low salaries according to the law. The additional payment will make 2400,- HRN ($88,-) (in two tranches: March 1200, and April 1200). Additional resource in the amount of 4.4 billion HRN ($162 million) was received by the Pension Fund at the expense of customs clearance of cars with “Euro licence plates”!*

*The latter deserves an explanation. Due to high custom’s duties, cars imported from the EU cost rather too much in Ukraine. But you can pretend that you are an employee of a foreign company, and drive around in a car registered to that company in Poland or Lithuania. And hundreds of thousands of people did this. Interestingly enough, this activity was rather tolerated, and encouraged by certain activists after Maidan. Until last year when the government decided to crack down upon this, and collect its due to the tune of 11 billion HRN ($407 million). Right in time for elections…