I realise that what I’m about to write may apply to other leading presidential candidates, and they may in the end do an even better job than Petro Poroshenko. However, Poroshenko is the devil we know, and the others have yet to prove themselves. For the purposes of this post I will treat current Russian irredentist interest as: keeping Crimea within Russia, and the survival of the DNR and LNR. Although, in the long run, Poroshenko may also be good for the reintegration of the rest of Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence. Let me explain how:
- Banderisation and Nazification: The post-Maidan regime made a pact with the Neonazis when it consolidated power. Today, Naziism is very popular in the Ukrainian armed forces, and Bandera has become a hero after whom streets are named, and slogans created in the 1930’s become the official greeting in the military. Such a Ukraine is hardly an attractive place for the people of Donbass and Crimea to return to. The Kremlins ought to realise that any federalisation is impossible with such a government in Kiev, any Kremlin resident that gives up the Donbass would be known as the one who gave Russian people to fascists.
- Language and Church: Poroshenko has been on a roll with Ukrainisation. This means the creation of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine out of local schismatics, and a planned draconian language law. These two things could have the potential to eventually stoke the fires of regional separatism. I have already heard some anti-Russian Russian speakers moan about the planned language regulations. These people deserve everything.
But the more immediate effect is reinforcing the image of Russophobia in the minds of the people in Donbass, Crimea, and RF.
Should the Hungarians be effected by the new language law, it would discredit Ukraine west of her borders, and thus prevent any integration into EU and NATO.
- Looting of the Military: It has been revealed to that Poroshenko’s friends have made some good money on Poroshenko’s fake war. According to the Global Firepower Index, Ukraine has fallen from 20th place in 2014 to 29th place in 2019. So Ukraine under Poroshenko is becoming weaker, and thus unable to return the lost territories by military means. It should be added that continuing the conflict would only postpone any EU integration.
- Corruption and Russophobic Economic Foolery: Ukraine literally buys Russian gas from the EU countries with an added price. Meanwhile, the price of gas for the Ukrainian population increases to pay debts to IMF. This kind of economic cretinism will keep Ukraine poor and totally ineligible for EU membership.
So basically, the Neonazis and Poroshenko rather knowingly aid the dismemberment of Ukraine, and the cause of Russian irredentism. Neither Poroshenko, nor the Nazis truly want the disloyal territories back, and this means their future integration with the Russian Federation.