Had Putin not taken Crimea, he would have lost both Crimea and Ukraine. You also cannot lose something you don’t have…
I keep hearing this phrase a lot in variations: “By taking Crimea, Putin made enemies of the Ukrainian people, and lost Ukraine forever.”
This is a very poor analysis of events. The pro-Russian position in Ukraine lost when the Euromaidan has won. The Maidan was a violent coup which was conducted by anti-Russian forces and in favour of a pro-Western orientation. Had Russia not made the decision to take Crimea, Ukraine would now be pro-Western and Russian military presence in Crimea would be unwelcome. Hence, for Russia, this was a question of capitulation and expulsion from Crimea, and this was totally unacceptable.
I also do not buy into the claim that Russian actions spurned the conflict. Had Russia not acted, the repressions against anti-Maidan would have come regardless. The Maidan regime would need to consolidate and assert its authority. It would have just been a further humiliation for Russia. Russia’s inaction is still blamed by many for the general loss incurred by the Antimaidan in 2014.
The idea that Putin lost Ukraine presupposes that Russia had some form of firm control over that country. But I remember Yanukovych pursuing relations with the EU, and repressing pro-Russian activists such as the Odessa politician, Igor Markov. Russia barely had influence over the Party of Regions, let alone the media and the oligarchs in Ukraine. We can, of course, argue that Russia should have done more in way of exerting influence over Ukraine before 2014 but that would just throw us into meaningless and frustrating speculation. The fact stands that Ukraine was an independent country since 1991, and her independent evolution culminated in the events of 2014.
Today, Russia has Crimea and Ukraine has bezviz, tomos, and hate. Russia does not need this kind of Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on Twitter this map of violent incidents, and incidents of vandalism against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church since 2014.
Read my other posts on the Church topic.
From Deutsche Welle Russian…
Russia will not hold out in its self imposed embargo on import of agricultural products from EU countries. “Russia covers no more than 60% of her needs in agricultural products with domestic production. The country is unable to cover the deficit in dairy products alone.”
The Americans seem to have found themselves a candidate…
Two candidate for president, Dmytro Hnat and Andriy Sadovy have said they will withdraw from the presidential race in favour of Anatoly Hrytsenko.
Hrytsenko is the new State Department candidate. So if the Ukrainians go for this twerp, we will see more of this:
I published this on Facebook…
A Soros funded journalist, Bihus, published an investigation of corruption in the military conducted by Poroshenko’s friends.
The rats are literally jumping the ship. Nayem, Leshchenko, Zalishchuk, three journalists, who sit on US grants have left Poroshenko’s party, and the Atlantic Council is saying Poroshenko does not deserve a second term.
George Kent currently serves as Deputy Assistant Secretary in the European and Eurasian Bureau at the U.S. Department of State, overseeing policy towards Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Previously, he was Deputy Chief of Mission in Kyiv, Ukraine (2015-18).
You can report George to Facebook for not using his real name. I just did…
The candidate for the President of Ukraine and the leader of the party “Bat’kivschyna”, Yulia Tymoshenko said that for the last five years, Kiev has made regular purchases of gas from Russia through a scheme called “Mars”.
According to Tymoshenko, she is ready to provide documentary evidence that Ukraine bought gas of Russian provenance for all those five years.
This fact is being obscured from the public by the president and the prime minister, who “present Russian gas as European.”
As the former Ukrainian prime minster admitted, for this purpose, special looped pipelines were set up, and gas transported from Russia is being taken, according to documents, “through Mars” and European exchanges in order to “cover tracks.”