Tag: War

Ten Surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Because Emmanuel Todd was mentioned in the comments, I have decided to republish this post…

I got hold of Emmanuel Todd’s book The Defeat of the West (La Défaite de l’Occident)…

The book is in French and I have had some difficulty to get through it, it would seem I have to work on my French. In the beginning Todd lists 10 surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian war, let me make a small commentary…

Surprise no.1 is the eruption of war in Europe, a real war between two states, which has disrupted the notion of perpetual peace.

The Western hegemonic order, symbolized by NATO and the EU has bloody borders. I am not sure what Todd means by real war between states, was not the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO a real war, albeit between ethnic groups and a transnational coalition of states?

But as we will see, these surprises that Todd lists are often not surprises to non-normies.

Surprise no.2 is that this actually is conflict between the US and Russia.

The Ukraine war in the broader context is about the preservation of the hegemonic order led by the United States. The United States and its vassal states believe that by fucking up Russia, they can preserve their grip on power and influence for a little longer. The same reasoning goes for the interventions in Libya and in Iraq, local strongmen wanted to trade their natural resource for something else than the dollar. Not to mention countless French interventions in Africa that you have barely heard about.

Surprise no.3 Is the resistance of the Ukrainians. Todd says that Ukraine had the image of a failed state, which is the homeland of millions of emigrants, looted by oligarchs, with a low birth rate, dying out, yet they found a new found vigor in their resistance towards Russian invasion.

I believe that the ferocious resistance of the Ukrainians is a bit of a hype. Todd correctly points out that the initial number of Russian troops deployed was rather small to occupy the whole country, and the Ukrainians have exploited this to chase peremoha, and show Russians as weak in the eyes of the superficial Western viewer. We have been told by the propaganda time and time again that the Russians only understand strength.

I personally was not surprised that the Ukrainians put up a resistance, especially against a limited Russian invasion force. The West has been arming Ukraine with Javelins and Stingers, the Ukrainians have been building fortifications in the East in anticipation of Russian attack. But I would say a large chunk of able bodied Ukrainian men have escaped the draft. There is of course a force of nationalists, bolstered by various groups that have an ax to grind with Putin’s Russia such as Ichkeria Chechens, Mejlis Crimean Tatars, Russian Neonazis, Russian liberals, and also Western defenders of Western hegemony duped by the propaganda. Plenty of Russophobes in Eastern Europe by the way, a legacy of Soviet rule…

This is a dedicated force of thousands of combatants. But the Ukrainian draftees are for the most part older than 40. We have seen countless videos of the shitshow that is the recruitment in Ukraine. Ukraine puts up quite a resistance but at the same time shows signs of a failed state, these two narratives are not mutually exclusive.

Surprise no. 4 The economic resilience of Russian economy. Russia has not collapsed economically in the wake of the Western sanctions, particularly being disconnected from the Swift payment system.

Proponents of sanctions say that the effect from them will be felt in the long term. But my thinking goes that the longer sanctions are ineffective, the more time the country has to adapt.

It remains to be seen if the Ukrnazis prevail over Russian forces, or if Western sanctions get the best of Russian economy and the latter finally collapses. Either scenario would be a victory for the Western hegemony and by proxy a legitimation of the Ukrainian nationalists. I don’t think Russia can afford any of this…

Surprise no. 5 Todd calls this the collapse of will power among Europeans. The Europeans have completely abandoned any inclination to defend their own interests. The Germans have accepted the sabotage of the Nord Stream. The Europeans have completely resigned to ever being an autonomous subject of geopolitics.

Surprise no. 6 is the emergence of the United Kingdom as the most bellicose in the anti-Russian coalition. Some out there say, Ukraine was Britain’s pet project. This whole draw Russia into conflict and defeat them, and in this way force the removal of Putin is said to be a British plan. So no surprise here they are so concerned about their baby.

Surprise no. 7 The seventh surprise is the sudden change in course for the Scandinavian countries that have shed their traditional neutrality and joined NATO. It is ironic because Russia would not attack them if it did not perceive a security threat from them, NATO is a hostile alliance from the point of view of the Russians. I heard that Swedish politicians were under some outside pressure to join.

Surprise no. 8 is the surprising revelation of the deficiency of Western military industrial complex. At the beginning of the war, commentators were comparing the GDP of Russia to the GDP of collective West. Some commentators, like Anatoly Karlin, said Russia is cooked, Russia can’t defeat the West. Karlin suggested Russia just go gay to appease the Occidental gods (LOL, Cringe, WTF?) . Todd says that Belarus and Russia have like 3% of the GDP of the West but it produces more weapons than the West.

Surprise no. 9 is the ignorance of the countries outside the collective West of the Western crusade against Russia through sanctions and support of Ukraine. India buys Russian oil and resells it to Europe, and many countries act as proxies between the West. The West has threatened secondary sanctions against these entities but it remains to be seen how much impact this policy actually has. China has flooded Russian market with goods that stopped flowing from the West. The West no longer is indispensable economically.

Surprise no.10 will be the defeat of the West. According to Todd, the West will self destruct before it is even attacked by Russia…

Is This the End for Ukrainian Nazis?

Ukrainism was created by Poles and Austrians to be used as a weapon against Russia. In fact it was the anxiety about Russophile sentiment in Halychyna that spurred the Austirian support for the Ukrainian idea, which is a complete fabrication by the way. Since WWI, whatever the power in Moscow is repeatedly forced to exterminate the threat. Somehow the Ukrainian nationalists always end up fighting Russia. Because the latter is what they were invented to do…

Whether we are talking about the Sichovi Streltsi, the SS Halychyna and UPA, or its current iteration in the form of the the Right Sector and Azov Battalion, Russia (or Russia in the form of USSR, which posed as anti-Russian) is forced time and time again to exterminate these vermin.

Pavel Gubarev: We will kill them all!

Source

The question is, will Russia be OK with keeping a land bridge to Crimea? Or will there be a programme of denazification following the collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the East? I am not sure if the former is chosen that Russia will win a long term peace and would not have to fight the Ukrnazis again few decades later. The question is whether the Russian elite is aware of this, or whether Russia has enough strength to pull this off. Putin promised denazification and to undo Ukrainian statehood, so it remains to be seen…

Abandonment, HIMARS, Zrada

Once upon a time, HIMARS was all the rage. Alexey Zhuravko died during a HIMARS attack. Bayraktar and Javelin were also all the rage, and where are they now? I know…

Russia basically learns how to counter whatever Ukraine and by proxy NATO throws at them. The Russian military is getting an invaluable experience. Not to mention, captured Ukrainians divulge secrets on what the Ukrainians are up to, and the latter are in many respects ahead of NATO.

This war, like no other going on in the World will revolutionize warfare.

Biden is Scared of Putin

Source

A new narrative. Biden is apparently afraid of Putin and does not give the Ukrainian Nazis the wunderwaffe needed to defeat Russia. We are being told that if we just gave the Ukrainiana more gear they would defeat Putin. If we just allowed the Ukrnazis to shoot cruise missiles at Russia, Putin would flex.

NATO membership for Ukraine has again reared its head. In reality, what they want to do is to leave Russia a part of Ukraine, negotiate piece and then accept what remains of Ukraine into NATO. You will hear Western officials goading Ukraine to accept loss of territory in exchange for ceasefire.

Luckily though, Zelensky cannot do this, he would be deposed by the Nazis, who want to continue the fight. And that’s why they will be destroyed and Russia will be restored.

Hopium Merchants

Guys, let me show you how the warmonger class that supports sending weapons to Ukraine operate…

They are feeding the notion that Ukraine can win…

The West needs to send just a little bit more howitzers, drones, rounds of ammo…

Russia can’t win this, this is a constantly repeated claim. Let’s imagine Russia’s defeat…

But these types are not very certain in their endeavors. They sense something is off…

Also, they are feeding the notion that Russia is running out of resources to wage the war, implying that it does not have enough of X or that it peaked in X.

***

Meanwhile, appart from Kursk, which became another caldron for Ukraine, Ukraine is not making any territorial gains. Ukraine just lost Vuhledar and is about to lose Siversk. Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Slaviansk are next, then Zaporozhie, Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Kharkov, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa. Russia will win this…

What We Are Afraid Of?

Angry Russians stealing toilets…

Honcharenko resurrects the Russophobic meme about Russians shitting in the street and not having toilets. I have addressed this issue here, and have come to the conclusion that the toilet situation is actually worse in Ukraine.

Once upon a time, Honcharenko campaigned in Odessa in support of the Russian language. He was harvesting the votes. Then he got fucked over in Crimea…

Then he helped burn people alive in Odessa. And now he wasn’t to shoot rockets at Russia. Nice career, don’t you think? And this little twerp says that the rocket strikes would depose Putin. What is worse, Putin or a faggot that burned people alive in Odessa?

Most Ukrainian Refugees in Czechia are from Transcarpathia

Transcarpathia is the former Czechoslovak province of Podkarpatská Rus (RUS). It is the Western most region of Ukraine. It is partially settled by Hungarians, and the Slavic locals have a vernacular that is hard for me to understand. It became a part of Ukraine in 1945. If you ask me, maybe I have missed it but I cannot recall Transcarpathia being targeted by rocket or drone strikes. The nearby Lvov, north of the Carpathian range experienced dozens of strikes. I kind of get that men flee recruitment. Besides, I don’t care about people milking the Czech state like this, the powers that be put their full support behind Ukraine, so this could not happen to a better government.

Kherson, Kontrnastup, Krynki, Kharkov, Kursk

The Kauldrons…

Guys, there was the Kherson offensive in 2023, Ukrainians have concentrated their forces to kick the Russians from the Right Bank of the Kherson region, they managed to do it but at the cost of many casualties. The Russians have withdrawn to the left bank. All this time, the Russians spent building fortifications in the Zaporozhye region, which has stopped the Ukrainian Kontrnastup.

Kontrnastup is Ukrainian for counteroffensive, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed spectacularly. By now, the Russians have reconquered much of what Ukraine took in the counteroffensive. I never understood the folly of this action, it was planned to cut through Russian lines and reach Crimea. It was announced months before, and when it finally started, the Ukrops got spectacularly fucked over.

Russia basically follows this strategy. They attack at one point, and draw Ukrainian reinforcements to the theatre, then go on the defensive, and attack at another point. Like this they have seven or eight directions open. In Kherson, they went on the defensive. Ukraine kept sending special forces on inflatable boats across the Dnieper river near the town of Krynki. I heard Putin say in one interview that he allowed the Ukrainians to cross to destroy them on the Left Bank. It was quite a spectacle watching the whole protracted battle. I saw Ukrainian boats hunted with FPV drones, and Ukrainians using HIMARS to destroy Russian infantry with cluster rounds.

Russia allegedly has like 100k soldiers in Kherson and Zaporozhye now that are ready to pounce and conquer what remains of these province under the control of Ukraine. To draw more Ukrops into another theatre of war, Russia began a limited operation north of the city of Kharkov. Ukraine delegated its best forces to stop Russian advance on the city, even though taking the city was never the point but equally Ukraine couldn’t allow encirclement of Kharkov.

Further north in August this year, Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive and captured few border towns in the Russian region. I have pretty much felt the outcome from the start. This will be another Krynki. The Ukrainians will pour soldiers into this territory and meanwhile the Russians will mobilize forces and stop their advance. It will become another cauldron, where Ukrainian forces will be trapped.

One only wonders why they are continuing these offensives, where they get their asses kicked. Maybe because demonstrating territorial gains to Western military virgins signals strategic success. Ukraine would have been much better served if they built defenses and did everything to stop Russian advance. Ukraine is quite strong in the drone department but failed in building ground defenses substantially. Like this they are losing forces and hastening their demise.