Ukraine lives in a lie, and that lie is about European integration, and even bigger lie is about an Euro-Atlantic integration of the country…
TV station “Pryamyi” belongs to the current president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, and naturally it runs a black PR against other candidates in the presidential race. Accusations of a lack of patriotism against Tymoshenko has been a steady feature on these channels. Recently one of its shows featured former member of parliament and general-lieutenant of SBU, Hrihoriy Omel’chenko, who said he heard Tymoshenko utter the unimaginable in 2009. She dared to put in question the Euro-Atlantic direction of the Ukrainian state on a Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe conference. I translate:
“Yulia Volodymirovna, without regard to the fact that it is written in the law on national security that the aim of Ukraine is to join NATO and the EU, said after a speech delivered by the Deputy Vice-Premier of the Russian Federation, Ivanov: “Ukraine will not enter the EU or NATO because it goes against the national interests of the Russian Federation, and we will work on a collective plan of European security…”
I am not going to debate here whether this hearsay is true. Tymoshenko certainly sings a rather different tune now. What I would like to discuss are Ukraine’s chances to join the two organisations. I will start with the EU, which I believe there is greater chance Ukraine will join in the future.
At present however, Ukraine is not even a candidate for membership in the EU. I don’t dispute Ukraine will become one in near future, there is good chance she will, but why didn’t she become one in the last 5 years? Why is it so hard to simply join the queue with Serbia and Turkey? On the website of the European Parliament, only the countries of Western Balkans are seen as candidates, or potential candidates for EU expansion.
The EU at present is gripped by an internal crisis. And there is a strong chance, the EU may cease to exist in its present form within the next decade. I certainly hope it will, and will do my bit to make this happen. By the time Ukraine is ready economically and socially to join the union there may be no union left to join. But perhaps there will be a Visegrad Union. There are many who dream of Intermarium out there.
With NATO things look rather bleak, an ongoing conflict in the East of the country makes Ukraine rather unattractive for NATO membership. Wishful thinkers, such as the academic Taras Kuzio liken Ukraine to West Germany, which was part of NATO. However, West Germany was a rather special case. There has not been an open armed conflict between West Germany and East Germany. East Germany, having risen out of the Soviet occupation zone, had more or less clearly defined borders, which the DNR and LNR do not. And finally, West Germany did not complain about Soviet aggression.