Ukraine Will Not Become a Member of the EU or NATO any Time Soon

Despite the wish of Ukraine to become a member of the EU and NATO being enshrined in the country’s constitution, the fulfillment of this wish may be further than some may hope…

It is unfortunate for the Svidomites, but 7 years after the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, Ukraine is still not a candidate for membership. At the recent visit of US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken to Kiev it became apparent the US gave a cold shoulder to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. Rumor has it, Victoria Nuland told Zelensky to cool it with his NATO aspirations. Ukraine gets the same reaction from the EU. Ukrainian officials demand fruitlessly guarantees by the EU that Ukraine will one day become a member of the EU, and the EU does not give any such guarantees.

I may have mentioned it before on this blog but Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia are not targets of the EU expansion. Ukraine’s, Moldova’s, and Georgia’s situation is however further compounded by territorial disputes. It is clear that these disputes prevent the ascension to NATO for these countries but little less obvious is that these disputes prevent Ukraine from joining the EU as well.

And while, Transnistria does not have an armed conflict, and Abkhazia, and South Ossetia are quiet too, we hear almost every month about casualties in the Donbas. Donbas has a small intensity war. And while the other frozen conflicts can be mediated through the UN before the country ascends to the EU, see the case of Cyprus, the conflict in the Donbas would first have to calm down if Ukraine is to ever seriously consider an EU ascension.

Ukraine has a wretched economy. It is literally the extreme East of Europe and it closed its door to Eurasia. This does not bode well for any economic development. It is said Ukraine will reach economic parity with Poland in 40 years. Ukraine even lags behind any of the current candidates for EU membership. Economically, the Russian Federation has more chance of becoming a member of the EU than Ukraine.

Also consider that the Kiev regime is unwilling to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Agreements. The current strategy of Kiev is to get the US, UK and Canada on board of the Minsk group. The continental guarantors of the treaties, that is Russia, France, and Germany would hardly find a common ground on this, and quite frankly affairs here on the continent should be delegated to continental powers.

The internal conflict, the bad economic configuration, the unwillingness of Kiev to resolve the conflict in Donbas, and the expansion plans of the EU, all postpone the Ukrainian ascension to the EU by many decades. The EU may even disintegrate before Ukraine even manages to become a candidate for membership, Ukraine may disintegrate too. The Ukrainian politicians should stop using the EU and NATO as their ideological mantra because the goals are improbable.