Zrada means betrayal, they are sensing a betrayal…

RUSI published this article by Tim Willasey-Willsey CMG…

It talks about the failure of Europe to commit to Putin’s defeat.

The new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, lost no time in visiting Kyiv after he assumed office, where he ‘pledged continued support for Ukraine in its war with Russia’. Doubtless his words were sincerely intended, but he knows there are serious political headwinds across Europe and the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky senses this too as he briefs his ‘Victory Plan’ around European capitals following a mixed reception in Washington.

Guys, Zelensky’s victory plan was basically, give us Taurus and Tomahawk, and take us to NATO. Mixed reception LMAO…

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November.

Does anybody believe the Donald will be able to stop the war in Ukraine? Trump was saying things the average US voter wants to hear during the election campaign but his options are limited. He can offer Russia an ultimatum after which he will send Ukraine more weapons. And provided they still have the manpower to drive those Bradleys, the Ukrainians will continue fighting until the bitter end. Besides, providing weapons fits well into the reindustrialization agenda.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. 

In any such deal, Zelensky would be unlikely to secure the recovery of Crimea and the Donbas, reparations for the massive damage to his country, war crimes trials or membership of NATO. He might be able to bargain the Kursk salient in return for control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. But, without NATO membership and its Article 5 guarantee, there would be nothing to stop Putin from continuing the war after a couple of years of recovery and rearmament. 

I do not think Russia has run out of steam. Russia will not allow Ukraine to have Zaporozhye, which was already included in Russian constitution as part of Russia. Russia will not allow Ukraine to remain in Kursk. Russia will not allow Ukraine to be in NATO, and Russia will not allow Ukraine to have a military.

US support has always been too little, too late. Given the sheer scale of Washington’s military support this might sound absurd, but President Joe Biden’s hesitancy in allowing Storm Shadow missiles to be used against targets inside Russia is indicative of a general trend. As the head of a global superpower, Biden has always had one eye on ensuring that the war does not get out of hand and become nuclear. The result has been that Ukraine feels it has been given enough not to lose but not enough to win. 

I have never understood this attitude of the Western alliance. Did they expect to defeat Russia with the stockpile of old Soviet junk from Eastern Europe? When the latter was depleted, they sent in HIMARS, Bradleys, Storm Shadows, Abrams… They will send more provided there are any Ukrainians to operate them. In fact, they might even send their own crews to man the rockets.

In Europe the support has been varied. Some countries, such as the Baltics, the Scandinavian states, the UK and Poland, have done better than others. Hungary has been hostile, and may soon be joined by Slovakia and Austria. Germany has provided the most weapons but has been politically unreliable. Its refusal to supply Taurus missilesand its public debate about reducing its defence budget have sent all the wrong messages. German companies continue to retain significant interests in Russia, and the advance of Alternative for Germany in elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg reminded Chancellor Olaf Scholz that there is little support for the war in Eastern Germany. President Emmanuel Macron of France, having been mercurial about Ukraine from the outset, received a similar jolt from the far left and far right in legislative elections in July.

Newsflash, the Eurocucks did not want this war. But there is zero political will to act in the interests of Europe among the European ruling class. They have outsourced their defense to the Americans, they have been happily using American social media, and other online infrastructure. The Americans have them by the balls because they finance journalists and NGOs in European countries. Imagine going against US foreign policy interests in Europe, impossible! You will be reviled in the media, only a handful of people have the political capital to afford this. Few of them want to.

The most visible sign of a failure of collective determination to defeat Russia was the decision not to seize Russian financial assets frozen in Western banks, but instead to use them as collateral to raise a much smaller loan. Yes, there would have been a theoretical risk of undermining faith in the Western-dominated financial system, but few countries are yet ready to entrust their savings to Chinese or Indian banks. Furthermore, it would have sent a message to Putin not to invade other countries.

I mean having your savings in a foreign bank, whatever foreign bank is invitation to get robbed.

Barring a mutiny by Russian forces or a crisis in Moscow, the prospects for Ukraine (and therefore Europe) look grim. The irony is that Putin would claim victory in spite of his campaign having been a costly disaster.

What would a betrayed Ukraine look like? At least it would retain some 82% of its territory. A guilty West would doubtless provide aid to rebuild infrastructure. It might be given a pathway to eventual EU membership (unless that option had been bargained away at the negotiating table), but joining the Western club may have lost its appeal at that point. Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchs would re-emerge from hibernation. The old post-Soviet cynicism would replace the youthful enthusiasm of the Maidan generation. There would be antagonism towards those returning from abroad after avoiding the fight, and – of course – thousands of grieving families.

The question is if Russia’s campaign was not worth the cost. Russia’s coal deposits have increased by 13%. Gas, grain, lithium, iron, uranium… The Maidan generation needs to be denazified. Russia will denazify the fuck out of Ukraine.

Failing that, the West will have years to repent the betrayal of the courageous Ukrainians, whose only crime was their wish to join the Western democratic order.

The crimes of the Ukrainians are many, and Russia is there to enact justice.