Peter Turchin 2026
Drones can only kill or destroy, and while I do not underestimate their ability to do damage, I am skeptical about their ability to occupy territories. The drones are good at holding the Russian advance, and attacking logistics at the rear but they will never replace the soldiers needed to retake territory occupied by Russia. The latter force is being forcibly mobilized and this creates resistance in the rear. I have heard of stories when the recruiters are called to collect a draft dodger only to be ambushed and beaten up.
Russia is actually positioned to conquest Donbas by the end of the year. The Ukrs on the other hand have been attacking Russian logistics with Hornet drones powered by Palantir AI causing a lot of damage. This war is getting rather tense now, Russia decided to attack Ukrainian logistics and command centers in the rear. So far in the North East and Kiev but rumors have it they might start attacking from Belarus.
Insomniac Resurrected 
I think the important point with the Ukrainian drone campaign, is they’re wildly anything they can. Not just military targets then they inflate the effects whilst ignoring the greater damage Ukrainian s taking.
Aside from that, I wonder if the Russians should risk deployment of their reserve armies via Belarus etc. NATO will bluff, but they won’t do shit because they can’t.
This could finally cave the front in, because even the vaunted Ukr drones aren’t infinite.
LikeLiked by 1 person
They aren’t Ukrainian drones really. Even if they are allegedly designed by Ukrainians, they are produced in the EU, and only assembled in Ukraine.
LikeLike