Ten Surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Because Emmanuel Todd was mentioned in the comments, I have decided to republish this post…

I got hold of Emmanuel Todd’s book The Defeat of the West (La Défaite de l’Occident)…

The book is in French and I have had some difficulty to get through it, it would seem I have to work on my French. In the beginning Todd lists 10 surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian war, let me make a small commentary…

Surprise no.1 is the eruption of war in Europe, a real war between two states, which has disrupted the notion of perpetual peace.

The Western hegemonic order, symbolized by NATO and the EU has bloody borders. I am not sure what Todd means by real war between states, was not the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO a real war, albeit between ethnic groups and a transnational coalition of states?

But as we will see, these surprises that Todd lists are often not surprises to non-normies.

Surprise no.2 is that this actually is conflict between the US and Russia.

The Ukraine war in the broader context is about the preservation of the hegemonic order led by the United States. The United States and its vassal states believe that by fucking up Russia, they can preserve their grip on power and influence for a little longer. The same reasoning goes for the interventions in Libya and in Iraq, local strongmen wanted to trade their natural resource for something else than the dollar. Not to mention countless French interventions in Africa that you have barely heard about.

Surprise no.3 Is the resistance of the Ukrainians. Todd says that Ukraine had the image of a failed state, which is the homeland of millions of emigrants, looted by oligarchs, with a low birth rate, dying out, yet they found a new found vigor in their resistance towards Russian invasion.

I believe that the ferocious resistance of the Ukrainians is a bit of a hype. Todd correctly points out that the initial number of Russian troops deployed was rather small to occupy the whole country, and the Ukrainians have exploited this to chase peremoha, and show Russians as weak in the eyes of the superficial Western viewer. We have been told by the propaganda time and time again that the Russians only understand strength.

I personally was not surprised that the Ukrainians put up a resistance, especially against a limited Russian invasion force. The West has been arming Ukraine with Javelins and Stingers, the Ukrainians have been building fortifications in the East in anticipation of Russian attack. But I would say a large chunk of able bodied Ukrainian men have escaped the draft. There is of course a force of nationalists, bolstered by various groups that have an ax to grind with Putin’s Russia such as Ichkeria Chechens, Mejlis Crimean Tatars, Russian Neonazis, Russian liberals, and also Western defenders of Western hegemony duped by the propaganda. Plenty of Russophobes in Eastern Europe by the way, a legacy of Soviet rule…

This is a dedicated force of thousands of combatants. But the Ukrainian draftees are for the most part older than 40. We have seen countless videos of the shitshow that is the recruitment in Ukraine. Ukraine puts up quite a resistance but at the same time shows signs of a failed state, these two narratives are not mutually exclusive.

Surprise no. 4 The economic resilience of Russian economy. Russia has not collapsed economically in the wake of the Western sanctions, particularly being disconnected from the Swift payment system.

Proponents of sanctions say that the effect from them will be felt in the long term. But my thinking goes that the longer sanctions are ineffective, the more time the country has to adapt.

It remains to be seen if the Ukrnazis prevail over Russian forces, or if Western sanctions get the best of Russian economy and the latter finally collapses. Either scenario would be a victory for the Western hegemony and by proxy a legitimation of the Ukrainian nationalists. I don’t think Russia can afford any of this…

Surprise no. 5 Todd calls this the collapse of will power among Europeans. The Europeans have completely abandoned any inclination to defend their own interests. The Germans have accepted the sabotage of the Nord Stream. The Europeans have completely resigned to ever being an autonomous subject of geopolitics.

Surprise no. 6 is the emergence of the United Kingdom as the most bellicose in the anti-Russian coalition. Some out there say, Ukraine was Britain’s pet project. This whole draw Russia into conflict and defeat them, and in this way force the removal of Putin is said to be a British plan. So no surprise here they are so concerned about their baby.

Surprise no. 7 The seventh surprise is the sudden change in course for the Scandinavian countries that have shed their traditional neutrality and joined NATO. It is ironic because Russia would not attack them if it did not perceive a security threat from them, NATO is a hostile alliance from the point of view of the Russians. I heard that Swedish politicians were under some outside pressure to join.

Surprise no. 8 is the surprising revelation of the deficiency of Western military industrial complex. At the beginning of the war, commentators were comparing the GDP of Russia to the GDP of collective West. Some commentators, like Anatoly Karlin, said Russia is cooked, Russia can’t defeat the West. Karlin suggested Russia just go gay to appease the Occidental gods (LOL, Cringe, WTF?) . Todd says that Belarus and Russia have like 3% of the GDP of the West but it produces more weapons than the West.

Surprise no. 9 is the ignorance of the countries outside the collective West of the Western crusade against Russia through sanctions and support of Ukraine. India buys Russian oil and resells it to Europe, and many countries act as proxies between the West. The West has threatened secondary sanctions against these entities but it remains to be seen how much impact this policy actually has. China has flooded Russian market with goods that stopped flowing from the West. The West no longer is indispensable economically.

Surprise no.10 will be the defeat of the West. According to Todd, the West will self destruct before it is even attacked by Russia…