Why Novorossiya Wasn’t Created

This a build upon the ideas in this post. I would like to explore this idea…

There are several reasons:

1) There has likely never been a plan to create Novorossiya in the first place.

Despite the claim that Russia planned to seize all eight South-Eastern regions of Ukraine, that is: Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Dneproperovsk, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov, nothing indicates the Kremlin ever had such a plan. What is indicative is that the Russian media have, from the very start of the pro-Russian protests in the South-East, referred to the protesters as “supporters of federalisation”. Hence, if the Kremlin ever had any plans to create Novorossiya, it would have been a federal region within Ukraine. Later in this post, I will explain the logic behind such thinking.

2) The demographics don’t make most of it a Russian land.

As I have pointed out before, the Russian ethnic identification predominates only in the major cities of the Donbass. It is therefore no surprise that outside the Donbass, the intensity of protests was far lower, and as my observation has it, these protests did not bear a separatist character. As far as I can judge, outside Donbass, only the regional administration building in Kharkov was seized by the pro-Russian protesters.

In Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, the local pro-Russian protesters were mostly Sovoks opposed to the Banderisation of Ukraine, and the illegal usurpation of power by the pro-Western Euromaidan. This crowd was brutalised by local Right Sector street thugs recruited from the ranks of football ultras. Below is a map of the birthplaces of soldiers who died in the military operation against the Donbass. As you can see, Dnepropetrovsk provided most meat for the grinder.

3017867_original.jpg

The people that claim that the Kremlin betrayed Novorossiya want to make us believe that the Kremlin ought to have occupied vast territories for a handful of commies that could not even hold against a bunch of fashy ultras.

3) Novorossiya would be economically unviable being a vast unrecognised territory, and her defence would be difficult. 

Novorossiya would certainly be an internationally unrecognised territory, with all the economic joys that come out of it. For instance, Odessa would die as a port. Every single port of Novorossiya would die, and that’s why I guess no serious effort was ever made to seize Mariupol in Donbass during the war. The occupation of the territory would inevitably create millions of refugees. If you think the war in Donbass created a crisis, imagine that several times over! There are serious issues with economically integrating the rump Donbass territory with Russia, now imagine the same issues but several times larger.

Novorossiya does not have natural borders with Ukraine, which would allow for constant incursions of subversive elements from Ukraine, and artillery shelling the like we see in the Donbass today. I believe that to make Novorossiya secure, invasion, occupation and pacification of the rest of Ukraine would be needed. That is an enormous undertaking for Russia, something that could be hardly justified in 2014.

4 thoughts on “Why Novorossiya Wasn’t Created

  1. I completely agree with your analysis here. Of course, from a Russian perspective, perhaps it would have been better to conquer all of the Donbass and Kharkiv Oblast as well. That way, the Russian-Ukrainian border would have been a bit neater (assuming, of course, that Russia would have subsequently annexed all of these territories).

    I also agree with you that it would have been one hell of a task to fix Novorossiya’s economy after its trade with the rest of Ukraine and Europe would have been cut–especially if Russia would have had to do this while suffering from extremely strong Western sanctions. Novorossiya’s location simply isn’t very useful for Russia. While Kharkiv and the Donbass could have perhaps been integrated into Russia due to their close proximity to Russia, it would have been harder to do for the central and western parts of Novorossiya. I mean, why use Odessa as a port when you can use Rostov instead? Novorossiya is largely separated from the Russian heartland by central Ukraine.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Russia didn’t go for Novorossiya at all. The separatist territories were helped to survive. And perhaps it was for the better.

      Like

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