Yuval Harari Says Ukraine Can Still Win

Unfortunately, the original FT article is behind a paywall, and I am too poor to pay them any money to read some Israeli smart ass gaslighting the Ukrainians into another counteroffensive….

Here is a mention of it in a Korean news portal:

Yuval Harari, an Israeli historian and author of the global bestseller *Sapiens*, assessed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its 3 years and 8 months, stating, “The side that has been victorious in this war is not Russia but Ukraine.” He argued that while Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated the war to destroy Ukraine’s national identity and end its existence as an independent state, he has failed to achieve this goal and is unlikely to do so in the future.

Problem is, Putin never had the goal to erase Ukraine. I have listened to enough of his stuff in my life to know that he doesn’t want any of this. His stated goals are demilitarization and denazification and he never once moved further from this.

In a column published in the British *Financial Times* (FT) on the 27th, Harari recalled, “When Russia launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, most of the world expected Russian forces to capture Kyiv within days. Even the West initially underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist and proposed establishing a government-in-exile for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.” He added, “However, Zelenskyy chose to stay in Kyiv, declaring, ‘We need ammunition, not an escape,’ and the outnumbered Ukrainian forces surprised the world by repelling Russia’s attacks.” Harari further noted, “In the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in Kharkiv and Kherson, reclaiming significant portions of territory initially seized by Russia. Although the frontlines later stagnated, Russia failed to capture additional strategic strongholds like Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Kherson.”

Most pro-Ukraine pundits fall for this trap. Ukraine has had some initial success against the Russians because they weren’t fighting a full Russian force. The Ukrainians exploited the weakness of Russian forces on the ground to push through around Kiev and in the Kharkov region. The recapture of Kherson was also in the same category. After this however, not that many territorial gains for Ukraine.

The Russians dug in, they brought in more forces and now they are incrementally but consistently grinding their way through the four claimed regions of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have a problem stopping them. For Ukraine, victory over Russia equals recovery of lost territories that are de jure Ukraine. Is Ukraine anywhere close to achieving this goal?

Harari emphasized Russia’s massive human losses and minimal gains. He wrote, “At the cost of 200,000 to 300,000 casualties, Russia has only managed to seize an additional border area accounting for approximately 0.6% of Ukrainian territory as of 2025. At this rate, conquering all of Ukraine would require 100 years and tens of millions of casualties.” He added, “As of August of this year, the territory controlled by Russia is actually smaller than it was in August 2022.” This underscores Russia’s failure to achieve any military victories worthy of the term “victory.”

Victory to the likes of Harari is taking a city like Kharkov or Odessa.😆👌 But the Russian military for some not obvious reason chose against this. I guess I know the reason. Ukrainian forces in Kherson are literally sitting ducks being hunted by drones. We have heard a lot about Russian causalities and how it would take millennia for Russia to take the Ukraine at this pace but nobody ever talks about the sacrifice the Ukrainians are making to stop the Russian advance. Mind you, Ukraine committed its best forces to holding the Russians back. Putin hasn’t engaged his entire army in this invasion.

Harari also highlighted Russia’s failures in aerial combat. He noted, “Unlike Israel, which secured air superiority over Iran within 36 hours during the 12-day war in June, Russia has never controlled Ukrainian airspace. Even its strategic bomber units have fallen victim to Ukrainian drone attacks.” He pointed out, “While Russia has resorted to missile and drone strikes resembling urban terrorism, Ukraine has refrained from attacking Russian civilians and instead conducted precision strikes on military bases and refineries hundreds of kilometers away.” He stressed, “Ukraine achieved all these results without direct foreign military intervention. The only case of third-party direct involvement is North Korea’s deployment of over 10,000 troops to Russia.”

Now Ukraine is being compared to Iran? 😆👌Really? Seriously? Ukraine has modern Western systems like Patriot and Western satellite data at its disposal. This makes the operation of Russian planes much more dangerous. It applies the same to navy. Ukraine has been bombing Belgorod with HIMARS and the Czech equivalent, Vampire for years now. The problem Ukraine has is they don’t have enough of the stuff. If they did, they would do the boogaloo every night like the Russians do.

Harari observed changes in Western attitudes: “Initially, the West hesitated to provide advanced weapons, and some restrictions remain. If sufficient support had been given from early 2022, the war might have ended by summer 2023.” He analyzed U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement, “Ukraine can fight and win with EU support,” as reflecting Trump’s preference for backing winners.

In Summer 2023 we were told how the Ukrainian troops would wash their boots on the beaches of Crimea. And how it ended?

Harari defined the essence of war as “whether political objectives are achieved.” He stated, “Victory is not about seizing more territory or destroying more cities. It is about achieving political goals. Putin sought to negate Ukraine’s identity and absorb it, but no one now doubts Ukraine’s existence.” This aligns with Carl von Clausewitz’s dictum that “war is a continuation of politics by other means,” implying Putin’s plan to erase Ukraine and revive the glory of the Soviet Union and Russian Empire has hit a wall.

Putin doesn’t have the desire to revive the USSR. These aims are implied to Putin because they are the anxieties of the boomer political elite in the West.

Referring to Putin’s 2021 paper on “The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” Harari emphasized, “Putin started the war convinced Ukraine was a fictional state, but now millions of Ukrainians have demonstrated to the world their willingness to sacrifice their lives to defend their independence.” He concluded, “Ukraine’s victory is irreversible. The remaining variable is whether the West can continue its support without being swayed by Russian propaganda.”

I am not sure if the fact that the Ukraine has been invented recently and the willingness of some to defend this idea are in any way contradictory. Also, it isn’t clear if this war demonstrates widespread national consciousness and patriotism. I have seen countless videos where the Ukrainian soldiers don’t speak Ukrainian or Russian. You had plenty of mercenaries and foreign fighters join this war. Also Ukrainian Nazis have always wanted a war with Russia.