Kherson, Kontrnastup, Krynki, Kharkov, Kursk

The Kauldrons…

Guys, there was the Kherson offensive in 2023, Ukrainians have concentrated their forces to kick the Russians from the Right Bank of the Kherson region, they managed to do it but at the cost of many casualties. The Russians have withdrawn to the left bank. All this time, the Russians spent building fortifications in the Zaporozhye region, which has stopped the Ukrainian Kontrnastup.

Kontrnastup is Ukrainian for counteroffensive, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed spectacularly. By now, the Russians have reconquered much of what Ukraine took in the counteroffensive. I never understood the folly of this action, it was planned to cut through Russian lines and reach Crimea. It was announced months before, and when it finally started, the Ukrops got spectacularly fucked over.

Russia basically follows this strategy. They attack at one point, and draw Ukrainian reinforcements to the theatre, then go on the defensive, and attack at another point. Like this they have seven or eight directions open. In Kherson, they went on the defensive. Ukraine kept sending special forces on inflatable boats across the Dnieper river near the town of Krynki. I heard Putin say in one interview that he allowed the Ukrainians to cross to destroy them on the Left Bank. It was quite a spectacle watching the whole protracted battle. I saw Ukrainian boats hunted with FPV drones, and Ukrainians using HIMARS to destroy Russian infantry with cluster rounds.

Russia allegedly has like 100k soldiers in Kherson and Zaporozhye now that are ready to pounce and conquer what remains of these province under the control of Ukraine. To draw more Ukrops into another theatre of war, Russia began a limited operation north of the city of Kharkov. Ukraine delegated its best forces to stop Russian advance on the city, even though taking the city was never the point but equally Ukraine couldn’t allow encirclement of Kharkov.

Further north in August this year, Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive and captured few border towns in the Russian region. I have pretty much felt the outcome from the start. This will be another Krynki. The Ukrainians will pour soldiers into this territory and meanwhile the Russians will mobilize forces and stop their advance. It will become another cauldron, where Ukrainian forces will be trapped.

One only wonders why they are continuing these offensives, where they get their asses kicked. Maybe because demonstrating territorial gains to Western military virgins signals strategic success. Ukraine would have been much better served if they built defenses and did everything to stop Russian advance. Ukraine is quite strong in the drone department but failed in building ground defenses substantially. Like this they are losing forces and hastening their demise.