Tag: War

Impending Zrada

Zrada means betrayal, they are sensing a betrayal…

RUSI published this article by Tim Willasey-Willsey CMG…

It talks about the failure of Europe to commit to Putin’s defeat.

The new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, lost no time in visiting Kyiv after he assumed office, where he ‘pledged continued support for Ukraine in its war with Russia’. Doubtless his words were sincerely intended, but he knows there are serious political headwinds across Europe and the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky senses this too as he briefs his ‘Victory Plan’ around European capitals following a mixed reception in Washington.

Guys, Zelensky’s victory plan was basically, give us Taurus and Tomahawk, and take us to NATO. Mixed reception LMAO…

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November.

Does anybody believe the Donald will be able to stop the war in Ukraine? Trump was saying things the average US voter wants to hear during the election campaign but his options are limited. He can offer Russia an ultimatum after which he will send Ukraine more weapons. And provided they still have the manpower to drive those Bradleys, the Ukrainians will continue fighting until the bitter end. Besides, providing weapons fits well into the reindustrialization agenda.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. 

In any such deal, Zelensky would be unlikely to secure the recovery of Crimea and the Donbas, reparations for the massive damage to his country, war crimes trials or membership of NATO. He might be able to bargain the Kursk salient in return for control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. But, without NATO membership and its Article 5 guarantee, there would be nothing to stop Putin from continuing the war after a couple of years of recovery and rearmament. 

I do not think Russia has run out of steam. Russia will not allow Ukraine to have Zaporozhye, which was already included in Russian constitution as part of Russia. Russia will not allow Ukraine to remain in Kursk. Russia will not allow Ukraine to be in NATO, and Russia will not allow Ukraine to have a military.

US support has always been too little, too late. Given the sheer scale of Washington’s military support this might sound absurd, but President Joe Biden’s hesitancy in allowing Storm Shadow missiles to be used against targets inside Russia is indicative of a general trend. As the head of a global superpower, Biden has always had one eye on ensuring that the war does not get out of hand and become nuclear. The result has been that Ukraine feels it has been given enough not to lose but not enough to win. 

I have never understood this attitude of the Western alliance. Did they expect to defeat Russia with the stockpile of old Soviet junk from Eastern Europe? When the latter was depleted, they sent in HIMARS, Bradleys, Storm Shadows, Abrams… They will send more provided there are any Ukrainians to operate them. In fact, they might even send their own crews to man the rockets.

In Europe the support has been varied. Some countries, such as the Baltics, the Scandinavian states, the UK and Poland, have done better than others. Hungary has been hostile, and may soon be joined by Slovakia and Austria. Germany has provided the most weapons but has been politically unreliable. Its refusal to supply Taurus missilesand its public debate about reducing its defence budget have sent all the wrong messages. German companies continue to retain significant interests in Russia, and the advance of Alternative for Germany in elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg reminded Chancellor Olaf Scholz that there is little support for the war in Eastern Germany. President Emmanuel Macron of France, having been mercurial about Ukraine from the outset, received a similar jolt from the far left and far right in legislative elections in July.

Newsflash, the Eurocucks did not want this war. But there is zero political will to act in the interests of Europe among the European ruling class. They have outsourced their defense to the Americans, they have been happily using American social media, and other online infrastructure. The Americans have them by the balls because they finance journalists and NGOs in European countries. Imagine going against US foreign policy interests in Europe, impossible! You will be reviled in the media, only a handful of people have the political capital to afford this. Few of them want to.

The most visible sign of a failure of collective determination to defeat Russia was the decision not to seize Russian financial assets frozen in Western banks, but instead to use them as collateral to raise a much smaller loan. Yes, there would have been a theoretical risk of undermining faith in the Western-dominated financial system, but few countries are yet ready to entrust their savings to Chinese or Indian banks. Furthermore, it would have sent a message to Putin not to invade other countries.

I mean having your savings in a foreign bank, whatever foreign bank is invitation to get robbed.

Barring a mutiny by Russian forces or a crisis in Moscow, the prospects for Ukraine (and therefore Europe) look grim. The irony is that Putin would claim victory in spite of his campaign having been a costly disaster.

What would a betrayed Ukraine look like? At least it would retain some 82% of its territory. A guilty West would doubtless provide aid to rebuild infrastructure. It might be given a pathway to eventual EU membership (unless that option had been bargained away at the negotiating table), but joining the Western club may have lost its appeal at that point. Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchs would re-emerge from hibernation. The old post-Soviet cynicism would replace the youthful enthusiasm of the Maidan generation. There would be antagonism towards those returning from abroad after avoiding the fight, and – of course – thousands of grieving families.

The question is if Russia’s campaign was not worth the cost. Russia’s coal deposits have increased by 13%. Gas, grain, lithium, iron, uranium… The Maidan generation needs to be denazified. Russia will denazify the fuck out of Ukraine.

Failing that, the West will have years to repent the betrayal of the courageous Ukrainians, whose only crime was their wish to join the Western democratic order.

The crimes of the Ukrainians are many, and Russia is there to enact justice.

North Korean Coomers in Kursk

The stories about North Korean soldiers being deployed to Kursk are getting increasingly wild. What devices are they watching the porn on? What websites are they visiting. Pornography websites are blocked in Russia, and I can hardly believe the North Korean soldiers, provided the stories about them are even true, have the mobile phones and Russian connections to beat their meat off…

Russian, Chinese, Iranian, North Korean Machine

I thought Ukraine was supposed to win with the support of Western democracies. We have been told, by Karlin for instance, that the West has a GDP far surpassing Russia, and the Russians would simply lose…

It is rather questionable the amount of help Russia received from the likes of China, North Korea, or Iran. We have all heard about Iranian drones the Shahid-Geran but it is unclear how many of those drones Iran has delivered, or whether the Russians haven’t acquired the technology and don’t produce the drones themselves. I think the second option is more probable, and the Russian have actually perfected the Iranian prototype.

There was a story about the Russians firing a North Korean version of Iskander, the Kimskander. There was also a story about North Korea providing artillery shells. There was also a story that the North Korean shells are shit and they explode prematurely. If the second information is true, and not just a propaganda, this form of help wasn’t worth much. On the other hand, we have also heard that Russia is perfectly capable of producing shells by themselves.

Recently, a story about North Korean soldiers being sent to Ukraine has surfaced. The Kim regime could be interested in providing its troops with some combat experience but is this a game-changer? On the other hand, Ukraine has attracted thousands of volunteers from the West, from Georgia, Chechens and Islamists from North Caucasus and the Middle East. This is a very internationalized conflict, and many parties would like to be present.

China’s position is not exactly supportive of Russia’s efforts. You don’t hear about the Russians firing Chinese ammo and rockets on Ukraine. Recently, I heard China is developing drones together with Russia. I think I saw a document that said China will work with Russia but not to the detriment of its own interests. Hence, China is happy to import Russian oil and gas but Chinese banks might be reluctant to service Russian clients because of sanctions. Also, many of those FPV drones Ukraine was using to destroy Russian tanks were bought from China. China recently said they will not allow export of technologies that might be used for military purposes but I don’t think Beijing has the infrastructure to police people in Czechia that send drones to Ukraine.

And this brings me to another point. Ukraine is benefiting from an international financial system. I have seen zero fundraisers for Russia or the republics of the Donbas but I have seen a lot of fundraisers for Ukraine. That is on top of packages sent by Western governments. Russia has only itself to rely on, and Ukraine is still losing. The whole point in having Ukraine fight Russia was to deal a blow with Russia by proxy. Russia is seen, by the West as a competitor that ought to be contained by constantly mounting sanctions, negative PR, and proxy conflicts on its borders. This stress is supposed to halt Russia. And nobody gives a fuck if some Ukrs are going to die at this.

Ten Surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Because Emmanuel Todd was mentioned in the comments, I have decided to republish this post…

I got hold of Emmanuel Todd’s book The Defeat of the West (La Défaite de l’Occident)…

The book is in French and I have had some difficulty to get through it, it would seem I have to work on my French. In the beginning Todd lists 10 surprises of the Russo-Ukrainian war, let me make a small commentary…

Surprise no.1 is the eruption of war in Europe, a real war between two states, which has disrupted the notion of perpetual peace.

The Western hegemonic order, symbolized by NATO and the EU has bloody borders. I am not sure what Todd means by real war between states, was not the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO a real war, albeit between ethnic groups and a transnational coalition of states?

But as we will see, these surprises that Todd lists are often not surprises to non-normies.

Surprise no.2 is that this actually is conflict between the US and Russia.

The Ukraine war in the broader context is about the preservation of the hegemonic order led by the United States. The United States and its vassal states believe that by fucking up Russia, they can preserve their grip on power and influence for a little longer. The same reasoning goes for the interventions in Libya and in Iraq, local strongmen wanted to trade their natural resource for something else than the dollar. Not to mention countless French interventions in Africa that you have barely heard about.

Surprise no.3 Is the resistance of the Ukrainians. Todd says that Ukraine had the image of a failed state, which is the homeland of millions of emigrants, looted by oligarchs, with a low birth rate, dying out, yet they found a new found vigor in their resistance towards Russian invasion.

I believe that the ferocious resistance of the Ukrainians is a bit of a hype. Todd correctly points out that the initial number of Russian troops deployed was rather small to occupy the whole country, and the Ukrainians have exploited this to chase peremoha, and show Russians as weak in the eyes of the superficial Western viewer. We have been told by the propaganda time and time again that the Russians only understand strength.

I personally was not surprised that the Ukrainians put up a resistance, especially against a limited Russian invasion force. The West has been arming Ukraine with Javelins and Stingers, the Ukrainians have been building fortifications in the East in anticipation of Russian attack. But I would say a large chunk of able bodied Ukrainian men have escaped the draft. There is of course a force of nationalists, bolstered by various groups that have an ax to grind with Putin’s Russia such as Ichkeria Chechens, Mejlis Crimean Tatars, Russian Neonazis, Russian liberals, and also Western defenders of Western hegemony duped by the propaganda. Plenty of Russophobes in Eastern Europe by the way, a legacy of Soviet rule…

This is a dedicated force of thousands of combatants. But the Ukrainian draftees are for the most part older than 40. We have seen countless videos of the shitshow that is the recruitment in Ukraine. Ukraine puts up quite a resistance but at the same time shows signs of a failed state, these two narratives are not mutually exclusive.

Surprise no. 4 The economic resilience of Russian economy. Russia has not collapsed economically in the wake of the Western sanctions, particularly being disconnected from the Swift payment system.

Proponents of sanctions say that the effect from them will be felt in the long term. But my thinking goes that the longer sanctions are ineffective, the more time the country has to adapt.

It remains to be seen if the Ukrnazis prevail over Russian forces, or if Western sanctions get the best of Russian economy and the latter finally collapses. Either scenario would be a victory for the Western hegemony and by proxy a legitimation of the Ukrainian nationalists. I don’t think Russia can afford any of this…

Surprise no. 5 Todd calls this the collapse of will power among Europeans. The Europeans have completely abandoned any inclination to defend their own interests. The Germans have accepted the sabotage of the Nord Stream. The Europeans have completely resigned to ever being an autonomous subject of geopolitics.

Surprise no. 6 is the emergence of the United Kingdom as the most bellicose in the anti-Russian coalition. Some out there say, Ukraine was Britain’s pet project. This whole draw Russia into conflict and defeat them, and in this way force the removal of Putin is said to be a British plan. So no surprise here they are so concerned about their baby.

Surprise no. 7 The seventh surprise is the sudden change in course for the Scandinavian countries that have shed their traditional neutrality and joined NATO. It is ironic because Russia would not attack them if it did not perceive a security threat from them, NATO is a hostile alliance from the point of view of the Russians. I heard that Swedish politicians were under some outside pressure to join.

Surprise no. 8 is the surprising revelation of the deficiency of Western military industrial complex. At the beginning of the war, commentators were comparing the GDP of Russia to the GDP of collective West. Some commentators, like Anatoly Karlin, said Russia is cooked, Russia can’t defeat the West. Karlin suggested Russia just go gay to appease the Occidental gods (LOL, Cringe, WTF?) . Todd says that Belarus and Russia have like 3% of the GDP of the West but it produces more weapons than the West.

Surprise no. 9 is the ignorance of the countries outside the collective West of the Western crusade against Russia through sanctions and support of Ukraine. India buys Russian oil and resells it to Europe, and many countries act as proxies between the West. The West has threatened secondary sanctions against these entities but it remains to be seen how much impact this policy actually has. China has flooded Russian market with goods that stopped flowing from the West. The West no longer is indispensable economically.

Surprise no.10 will be the defeat of the West. According to Todd, the West will self destruct before it is even attacked by Russia…

Is This the End for Ukrainian Nazis?

Ukrainism was created by Poles and Austrians to be used as a weapon against Russia. In fact it was the anxiety about Russophile sentiment in Halychyna that spurred the Austirian support for the Ukrainian idea, which is a complete fabrication by the way. Since WWI, whatever the power in Moscow is repeatedly forced to exterminate the threat. Somehow the Ukrainian nationalists always end up fighting Russia. Because the latter is what they were invented to do…

Whether we are talking about the Sichovi Streltsi, the SS Halychyna and UPA, or its current iteration in the form of the the Right Sector and Azov Battalion, Russia (or Russia in the form of USSR, which posed as anti-Russian) is forced time and time again to exterminate these vermin.

Pavel Gubarev: We will kill them all!

Source

The question is, will Russia be OK with keeping a land bridge to Crimea? Or will there be a programme of denazification following the collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the East? I am not sure if the former is chosen that Russia will win a long term peace and would not have to fight the Ukrnazis again few decades later. The question is whether the Russian elite is aware of this, or whether Russia has enough strength to pull this off. Putin promised denazification and to undo Ukrainian statehood, so it remains to be seen…

Abandonment, HIMARS, Zrada

Once upon a time, HIMARS was all the rage. Alexey Zhuravko died during a HIMARS attack. Bayraktar and Javelin were also all the rage, and where are they now? I know…

Russia basically learns how to counter whatever Ukraine and by proxy NATO throws at them. The Russian military is getting an invaluable experience. Not to mention, captured Ukrainians divulge secrets on what the Ukrainians are up to, and the latter are in many respects ahead of NATO.

This war, like no other going on in the World will revolutionize warfare.

Biden is Scared of Putin

Source

A new narrative. Biden is apparently afraid of Putin and does not give the Ukrainian Nazis the wunderwaffe needed to defeat Russia. We are being told that if we just gave the Ukrainiana more gear they would defeat Putin. If we just allowed the Ukrnazis to shoot cruise missiles at Russia, Putin would flex.

NATO membership for Ukraine has again reared its head. In reality, what they want to do is to leave Russia a part of Ukraine, negotiate piece and then accept what remains of Ukraine into NATO. You will hear Western officials goading Ukraine to accept loss of territory in exchange for ceasefire.

Luckily though, Zelensky cannot do this, he would be deposed by the Nazis, who want to continue the fight. And that’s why they will be destroyed and Russia will be restored.

Hopium Merchants

Guys, let me show you how the warmonger class that supports sending weapons to Ukraine operate…

They are feeding the notion that Ukraine can win…

The West needs to send just a little bit more howitzers, drones, rounds of ammo…

Russia can’t win this, this is a constantly repeated claim. Let’s imagine Russia’s defeat…

But these types are not very certain in their endeavors. They sense something is off…

Also, they are feeding the notion that Russia is running out of resources to wage the war, implying that it does not have enough of X or that it peaked in X.

***

Meanwhile, appart from Kursk, which became another caldron for Ukraine, Ukraine is not making any territorial gains. Ukraine just lost Vuhledar and is about to lose Siversk. Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Slaviansk are next, then Zaporozhie, Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Kharkov, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa. Russia will win this…