Why Kiev has no interest in ending the current status quo…
This will be a short post which will explain the reasons why Kiev in some way benefits from the current low burning conflict in the Donbass.
- The simmering conflict in Donbass does not create much war weariness in the generally apathetic Ukrainian populace. I believe that restarting it would be too much of a gambit for Kiev. Peremoha (Ukrainian for “victory”) is not assured, and nobody needs to wake the mother bear from her slumber.
- Back in January, the Ukrainian parliament, overwhelmingly approved a law defining Donbass republics as a territory occupied by Russia, and called Russian Federation an “aggressor”. This is all very nice but the Ukrainian government failed to declare war on Russia. Also, the war is called “hybrid war”. Whatever that means, it is not a normal war. I doubt even Ukrainian officials understand what they are saying.
- Therefore this war, which is not war, is to never end. Because it would mean confrontation with the aggressor. But meanwhile, this lack of clarity serves the Kiev regime in more ways than one.
- It keeps one of the hotbeds of Antimaidan, together with Crimea, outside the Ukrainian political game, ensuring a long term electoral victory for pro-Maidan forces.
- Even if we consider that upon Ukraine’s seizure of the republics by force, the territory will be ethnically cleansed, Ukraine would be left with a destroyed territory that would require investments to rebuild. Like this, Donbass is a Russia’s problem and a Russia’s headache. Besides, Russia’s poor handling of the republics only plays into the hands of Ukrainian propaganda.
- Speaking of propaganda, in a state of a hybrid war that is not actually a war, anyone critical of the government can be labelled as agent of Putin, and silenced. Not happy with the economic situation? Shut up you Kremlin scum!
- War, that is not war, also allows the government to blame any hardship on Putin, and blame any tragedy, like the recent explosion of a military arsenal in Chernigov region on Putin.
- The simmering war allows some people to make money. Although, too many guns unaccounted for might cause a security dilemma, the powers that be in Ukraine are hardly bothered by this.
That’s basically it, that’s why the war, which is not really a war, will never end…